The Inside Story About The House
This afternoon, while not trying to figure out our new spam filter, I took a phone call from the Republican National Committee. It was the usual request for a contribution. I’ve given several times since this election year, but I decided to give more as we are coming to the wire.
I’ve written before about not trusting the polls and I’ve commented that I have a lot of faith in the GOP internal polling. So when I was on the phone with the woman from the RNC, I got on the topic of the races in Colorado. It was abundantly clear to me that she had the GOP internal polling in front of her. So I figured in return for my contribution, I would ask about the other races. And here is the INSIDE STORY.
First of all, the Senate is safe. The House can go either way but it won’t be by many seats. So much for the wild claims of the Dems picking up 40 to 50 seats. Ain’t gonna happen. Here are the list of the most vulnerable GOP seats, according to internal polling.
Don Sherwood, PA-10
Curt Weldon, PA-7
Rob Simmons, CT-2
Heather Wilson, NM-1
Michael Soldrel, IN-9
Charles Taylor, NC-11
Deborah Pryce, OH-15
John Hostettler, IN-8
Chris Chocola, IN-2
If you live in any of these areas, please get out the vote, do what you can to support these Republican representatives. And if you don’t live in these areas, if you get a call from the RNC, please make a donation. It’s down to the wire, folks.
Welcome Wizbang and Polipundit readers.
Posted by COgirl
October 28th, 2006 at 5:13 pm
Remember that virtually all polling nowadays can be safely called, quite accurately, Attempted Republican Vote Suppression.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if many of these polls weren’t even conducted, just simply made up.
October 28th, 2006 at 5:17 pm
Mason- Dixon polls have historically been quite accurate. I think they are the only outfit I trust as far as individual state polling.
October 28th, 2006 at 5:21 pm
This is GOP internal polling. I feel pretty good about their results.
October 28th, 2006 at 5:23 pm
Thanks,
I feel better now. Of, course, there was never a doubt.
October 28th, 2006 at 5:44 pm
Thanks for the inside scoop - I believe those races listed are imperiled. Davidm - has given us a first hand account of how Wilson is fumbling. I also know the two PA seats are really iffy. PA is trending blue- it’s definitely a purple state.
I think we’ll wind up better in the Senate. I don’t think Talent will lose in MO, Santorum will make it close, but DeWine and Chaffee have divorced conservatives once too often.
It looks good for Kean and Steele, and I’ll bet we wind up with one of them - I do so hope Steele wins. I love that man.
Webb is toast as is Ford. So I think we’ll wind up down by two.
I wonder if dems succeed in putting through their ‘conservative-lite’ candidates how Perilosi will handle any dissent - or if we’ll have tons of issues in two years to shove in their faces and say - YOU LIED.
October 28th, 2006 at 5:58 pm
COgirl
I didn’t mean the poll numbers you were quoting, just almost all of the others….
October 28th, 2006 at 6:12 pm
Gotcha.
I’m doing too many things at once.
October 28th, 2006 at 7:35 pm
Thanks for this posting, ’cause-like Pa.-I was trending blue, also. Of course, I know it doesn’t help to be in pain like I am today. It sure affects my mental state. The doctor says I have 4, not 3 compressed and/or herniated disks. Major ouch!
October 28th, 2006 at 7:48 pm
David,
How many more shots for you? Get better soon, my friend. And don’t trend blue!
October 28th, 2006 at 8:56 pm
davidm
Is there a place where you can swim? Wonderful for the back, I know from personal experience with my own L5 disk!
It gives you exercise without putting weight on your body
October 28th, 2006 at 9:26 pm
Jeeze David! That sounds painful. I’ve only got one herniated disc, and it’s worse than anything I’ve ever felt in my life. I hope the shots get you sorted out. The second one has helped quite a bit — much more flexibility and a bit less pain.
And I second what MFG said, too. I went swimming today with my little sister as a matter of fact. Not terribly taxing on the back, and it works the arms, legs, and heart quite well. More exercise than I’ve gotten since this mess started. Planning on doing it much more regularly.
October 28th, 2006 at 10:06 pm
David, my brother had 3 degenerated disks and he was in agony until he had surgery. And that was really the only option for him. My husband ruptured one and was able to nurse it with physical therapy, including traction, and one of those injections. He’s ok now.
You take care of yourself and stay RED!
October 28th, 2006 at 11:56 pm
I voted red–just feeling blue. 3 more shots for me. The Dept of Justice attys are coming Monday, literally right after my injections, to check on my voting program. I find walking with the dogs very comfortable. My back doesn’t hurt at all after a few minutes of walking. I’ve been doing 2 one hour walks a day. We’re all getting skinny, but sleeping/lying down is painful, Good night, all.
October 28th, 2006 at 11:59 pm
Feel better, David. I know that’s agonizing.
October 29th, 2006 at 7:58 am
David,
Sleeping is still a pain for me too. It hurts anyway I lay except on my stomach — and I can’t sleep on my stomach.
October 29th, 2006 at 8:00 pm
The Final Push
There is a very interesting post at Hang Right Politics by Colorado Girl about taking a call from the RNC and, after contributing a bit to the cause, in return getting some inside scoop on the vulnerable House races. We…
October 29th, 2006 at 8:39 pm
Hi COgirl, I am cross linking your post over at Polipundit.
My best,
October 29th, 2006 at 9:19 pm
Thanks for the link, Oak.
October 29th, 2006 at 9:44 pm
Thanks to both Lorie and Oak Leaf.
October 30th, 2006 at 1:33 am
Don’t forget that Diana Irey will defeat Jihad John Murtha a week from Tuesday. Here in Minnesota, we’ve got an outside shot at defeating Keith Ellison and Jim Oberstar. Oberstar is in the fight of his life against former U.S. Senator Rod Grams. Grams produced paperwork at their last debate that stated Maryland was Oberstar’s primary home. This information caused an Oberstar meltdown.
Expect the GOP to pick up seats in both the House & Senate.
October 30th, 2006 at 9:30 am
I don’t doubt that is what you’ve heard, but I doubt very seriously whether you were given access to GOP internal polls.
I’ve worked the GOP phone banks countless times and have never had access to them nor heard of others who did. And, given that the GOP is not 100% sure of who they are talking to when making these calls, they would NEVER give that information to a random person on the other end of the phone.
It sounds like someone wanted to cheer you up.
October 30th, 2006 at 9:59 am
Paul, my suspicion is that those are the races where they intend to spend the money they are trying to raise. The woman I spoke with used the term vulnerable, but I think those are the districts where we have an excellent chance to hold the seats.
I will say that I asked about DeLay’s and Foley’s districts and she had no information. I don’t know what that really means. I don’t consider those seats out of the question for us to hold, by the way — conservative district with well-know write-ins/substitutes. I asked about CO-7 and she said it would be close. I guess it’s not considered vulnerable because it’s an open seat.
I take it all with a grain of salt. I just don’t think the House is lost. If we’re able to hold just half of those vulnerable seats, I think we hold the house.
October 30th, 2006 at 10:01 am
test from work.
October 30th, 2006 at 10:09 am
CharlyG, your test came through. I don’t know if it had to be cleared or not. Hopefully, you are good to go!!
October 30th, 2006 at 10:31 am
It was not blocked at all.
October 30th, 2006 at 10:36 am
CG
Great.
October 31st, 2006 at 12:59 pm
[…] The Story Behind the PollsMichael Barone, RealClearPolitics See Also: The Inside Story About The HouseCOgirl, Hang Right Politics […]